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LAST UPDATE:10/1/2022
CQM 20200930 CQM 20200930

NIPA data were revised back to 2017 and statistical discrepancies (SDs) were revised downward significantly during the past 6 quarters (graph 2.1). This was expected based on the CQM forecasts. Although economic growth in 2022Q1 and Q2 was unchanged on the expenditure side, that on the income side was revised from 1.8% to 0.8% in 2022Q1 and from 1.4% to 0.1% in 2022Q2. As a result, real GDO contracted consecutively in 2022Q1 and Q2, resulting in a complete technical recession. We cannot prove that economic growth rate on the expenditure is more accurate than that on the income side. So, economists and markets should pay more attention on the income side. The US economy could avoid negative growth in 2022Q3 after entering a recession.

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