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Trade deficit significantly widened from $103.5 billion in November to $122.1 billion in December. Exports of goods decreased 4.47% in December, compared to the ARIMA forecast of 1.79%. On the other hand, imports of goods increased 3.86% in December, much higher than the ARIMA forecast of 0.62%. Inventories for wholesalers and retailers decreased in December much deeper than their ARIMA forecasts. So, we run CQM forecast one more time before the Advance GDP is released. CQM revised down the average economic growth rate of both sides from 3.09% to 2.19% for 2024Q4. Inventory changes and trade deficits contributed to lowering real GDP in 2024Q4 as shown by high growth rate of both real final sales and domestic final sales.
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