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LAST UPDATE:8/13/2022
CQM 20220812 CQM 20220812

This week CQM/PCA updated important July price indexes such as CPI, PPI and import/export prices. Since they changed significantly in the first month of the forecasting quarter, the effects of these price indexes on the economic growth were large. In the first month in each forecasting quarter, it is better to focus on the average growth rate on both the expenditure and income sides. This week’s CQM and PCA forecast almost zero economic growth in the current quarter. From this week's CQM/PCA forecasts, the possibility of Biden’s stagflation in 2022Q3 cannot still be eliminated. However, what is more worrisome than Biden's stagflation is that the Biden administration has turned the United States into a banana Republic.


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