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December employment was a key to judge whether the Fed will cut policy interest rates at the FOMC meeting on January 28 and 29. Payroll employment rose by 256K in December, much higher than the market consensus of 154K. Both CQM and PCA revised slightly upward economic growth in 2024Q4. The average economic growth rate of the expenditure and income sides, as a better measure of economic growth, is almost 3% in 2024Q4 with an uptrend. While the CQM expects inflation to plateau at around 2% in 2024Q4, the PCA expects GDP price deflator to exceed 3% in 2024Q4. Based on the CQM and PCA forecasts of economic growth and inflation for 2024Q4, the Fed is expected to keep policy interest rates unchanged at the FOMC meetings on January 28 and 29.
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