Theory of CQM...

At the University of Pennsylvania, in cooperation with the WEFA Group,

Prof. Lawrence R. Klein of University of Pennsylvania has established statistical

relationships between some 75 monthly economic and financial indicators and the main

entries in the quarterly national income and product accounts (NIPA). This is so-called

Current Quarter Model (CQM). The CQM is a purely econometric system with no

personal data adjustment. Whenever high frequency indicators are available, partial

information on the United States economy can be updated, revising the current (and

next) quarter forecasts. Since there is no personal adjustment in the CQM, the CQM

forecasts on a forward rolling basis are able to tell the continuous changes in the

economy. The graphs in CQM Performance show the history of how CQM was

forecasting real GDP growth rates from both expenditure and both income sides, and

their average growth rate. As for the theory of CQM, refer to "Combinations of High

and Low Frequency Data in Macroeconometrics Models (CQM_Theory.pdf)" by Prof.

L.R.Klein and Mr. E.Sojo.