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LAST UPDATE:5/18/2019
CQM 20190517 CQM 20190517

There were surprisingly large downward revisions in real GDP on both the expenditure and income sides. The growth rates are forecasted to be in a range of 0.5%-1.5%. The declines in April retail sales and industrial output index as well as a small increase in import prices are responsible for the downward revisions in real the GDP. On the other hand, PCA and real final sales of domestic product and to domestic purchasers still forecasts economic growth of about 3% in 2019Q2. We can be cautiously pessimistic about the current economic outlook based on the GDP on both the expenditure and income sides while we can be cautiously optimistic based on the PCA forecast and real final sales. Personal consumption expenditure plays the most important role in the current economic outlook. Since the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index jumped in May to a 15-year high, being cautiously optimistic about the current economy may be more suitable than being cautiously pessimistic.

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