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LAST UPDATE:7/18/2024
CQM 20240719 CQM 20240719

This week's CQM and PCA are the final forecasts for the economy in 2024Q2. Uncertainty in the forecast lies in June international trade, business inventories, construction spending and capital goods shipments, and the money supply, which have not been released yet. CQM forecasts economic growth to be 0.84% on the expenditure side and 2.03% on the income side. Advance GDP tends to be close to economic growth on the expenditure side while real GDI tends to be close to economic growth on the income side. The average growth rate of both sides is calculated to be 1.44% which will be close to real GDO. Final PCA forecast of real GDP for 2024Q2 is 2.38%, which is higher than CQM forecasts. This is mainly because strong S&P500 and industrial production index (IP) in 2024Q2. As for inflation in 2024Q2, it will likely be around 2.5%.

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