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LAST UPDATE:6/21/2019
CQM 20190621 CQM 20190621

The Fed held interest rates at 2.25%-2.50% at the June 19 FOMC meeting. Only St. Louis Fed President James Bullard preferred to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points because of concerns about low inflation. The Fed replaced the phrase “patient monetary policy” with “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” in the June 19 FOMC statement. Namely, the Fed strongly suggested that they would cut interest rates in the months ahead. However, both CQM and PCA forecasts prove that the Fed should be “patient” with monetary policy. This is because Fed economists have overlooked not only the bottoming out of the current economy but also the moderate upward trend of current headline inflation.

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