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LAST UPDATE:10/18/2019
CQM 20191018 CQM 20191018

All economic indicators released this week were disappointing. September retail sales, industrial index and housing starts fell 0.3%, 0.4% and 9.4% respectively. Inventories for retailers decreased 0.1% in August. Both CQM and PCA revised the real GDP growth rate downward by about 0.2%. It is likely that Advance economic growth in 2019Q3 will be about 1.75%. Real GDI may prove to have grown at an annual rate of about 2.0% in 2019Q3. The economic indicators released this week must have encouraged the dove Fed economists who support and interest rate cut at the October 30 FOMC meeting. It will be interesting to see which the Fed will depend on for making monetary policy decisions at the October 30 FOMC meeting: “Challenges for Monetary Policy” or “Data-Dependent Monetary Policy”? They recently say “Meeting-by-Meeting Approach”, though they used to stick to “Forward Guidance Approach.” If this is indeed the case, there will have been no unanimous decision about monetary policy for three consecutive FOMC meetings. This means that the Fed’s monetary policy will eventually lose all credibility with the markets.

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