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LAST UPDATE:5/17/2024
CQM 20240517 CQM 20240517

There is a slightly upward trend of economic growth on the expenditure side, but a slightly downward trend on the income side. The average growth rate for both expenditure and income, which represents latent true economic growth, appears to be converging to 1% growth. The PCA also shows that the economic growth rate in 2024Q2 will be on a downward trend and will be 1.14%. We may conclude that the economy will lose momentum and converge to economic growth of around 1% in 2024Q2. Inflation seems to be stabilizing. Headline inflation and core PCE price deflators appear to be growing at around 3% in 2024Q2. The Fed will keep the policy interest rates unchanged for a while, given the economic situation of lackluster 1% economic growth and stable 3% inflation.

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