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LAST UPDATE:7/3/2020
CQM 20200703 CQM 20200703

Payroll employment increased by 4.250 million jobs in June, following an increase of 2.699 million in May. June employment contributed to the upward revisions of real GDP for both CQM forecast on the income side and PCA forecasts. PCA forecast of real GDP leads the economic recovery in 2020Q2, followed by CQM forecast of real GDP on the income side. CQM forecast of real GDP on the expenditure side is the slowest sign for the economic recovery. Financial variables such as stock prices and interest rate spread play important roles in PCA forecast. Employment has a major impact on income-side projections. The slow recovery from the expenditure side is mainly due to large decreases in personal consumption spending and fixed capital formation.

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