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LAST UPDATE:11/27/2020
CQM 20201127 CQM 20201127

BEA released that Preliminary real GDP growth rate was 33.1% in 2020Q3 while real GDI growth rate was 25.5%. There was a 7.6% difference in economic growth rate between the expenditure and income sides. Which economic growth rate is right? BEA introduced Gross Domestic Output (GDO) as a better measure of economic growth. GDO is calculated as an average of GDP and GDI. It is important to judge the current economic situations from the several methods such as CQM forecasts on both the expenditure and income sides and PCA forecast. CQM forecast on the expenditure side seems to be too optimistic for the current economic situation. It is reasonable to think that the U.S. economy is growing at an annual rate of about 5% from CQM and PCA forecasts.

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