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LAST UPDATE:3/23/2019
CQM 20190322 CQM 20190322

As had been expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the March 20 FOMC meeting. At the December 19, 2018 FOMC, the dot plot shows that 15 out of 17 Fed economists expected rate hikes in 2019 while at the March 20 FOMC the dot plot shows only 6 out of 17 Fed economists expected rate hikes in 2019. There has been a dramatic change in the dot plot in the 3 months between December 19 and March 20. Monetary policy should not depend on such guess work by the Fed economists, which contradicts “data-dependent” approach. CQM agrees with Fed economists about the outlook of household spending and fixed investment. But, CQM is less optimistic about the economic outlook than are the Fed economists. CQM forecasts inflation will be considerably below the Fed’s 2% target.

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