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LAST UPDATE:2/4/2023
CQM 20230203 CQM 20230203

The January nonfarm employment increased 517,000, much larger than the market consensus of 185,000. Since we want to see the single effect of 517K increase of January employment on the CQM/PCA forecasts, we ran CQM twice on February 2 and 3 respectively.  CQM revised up economic growth rate by about 0.3% from 2.45% to 2.80% on the expenditure side in 2023Q1. CQM adjusted up economic growth rate by about 1.5% from 0.46% to 1.80% on the income side. The PCA modified upward economic growth by about 1.0% from 0.84% to 1.74%.


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