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LAST UPDATE:1/23/2020
CQM: 20200124 CQM: 20200124

This week’s CQM is the last forecast for Advance 2019Q4 GDP. CQM forecasts the economic growth rate to be 3.09% on the expenditure side in 2019Q4 and to be 2.62% on the income side. PCA forecasts the economic growth rate to be 2.16%, lower by 0.93% than that on the expenditure side. In general, the economic growth rates measured by the three approaches tend to converge within a range of 0.5%. But 2019Q4 is not the case. The major uncertainties for economic growth in 2019Q4 are December imported goods, inventories for wholesalers and retailers and private residential construction spending. Although PCA forecast is close to the market consensus of real GDP, there is an upside risk depending mainly on imported goods.


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