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LAST UPDATE:9/22/2018
CQM 092118 CQM 092118

Not only real GDP on both the expenditure and income sides but also real aggregated indexes, except final sales of domestic product, have been on steady upward trends since early August with high growth rates. CQM, however, forecasts that real final sales of domestic product are growing at annual rate of about 1.5% in 2018Q3, suggesting a considerable contribution of inventory changes to economic growth in 2018Q3. The large contribution of inventory changes to economic growth is mainly due to the large increases in July business inventories as well as negative inventory changes in 2018Q2. Therefore, August inventories are important to get a clearer economic outlook for 2018Q3. Another important index is the August exports of goods, which unexpectedly fell 1.6% in July. What is sure for economic growth for 2018Q3 is large contribution of inventory changes and very weak residential investment.

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