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LAST UPDATE:12/7/2019
CQM 20191206 CQM 20191206

Payroll employment increased 266,000 in November, higher than the market consensus of 182,500. Market expects no chance that the Fed will decrease interest rates at December 11 FOMC meeting. CQM and PCA forecasts illustrate that the economy seems to have bottomed out in the middle of November. Both the forecasts show that the economy is growing at an annual rate of about 1.5%. So, we should not be overly optimistic for the current economic situation. Imports and inventory changes affect the current economic growth significantly as shown in CQM forecasts of real aggregated indexes. In order to be optimistic for the current economy it is a key when firms begin to feel confident about the future of the economy.

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