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LAST UPDATE:10/16/2021
CQM 20211015 CQM 20211015

The September retail sales and CPI brought economic growth on both the expenditure and income sides to be very close, 1.7%. The economic growth rate in 2021Q3 is likely to have fallen below 2%. CQM and PCA forecast inflation rate above 6% in 2021Q3. When food and energy prices are increasing, inflation is not temporary (table 1). In addition, wages are rising as average hourly earnings increased 0.6% in September. PCA forecasts economic growth rate in 2021Q3 higher than CQM because financial markets looked optimistic. S&P500 increased 5.7% in 2021Q3, and interest rate spread widened 0.09% in September.

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