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LAST UPDATE:8/10/2019
CQM 20190809 CQM 20190809

Until actual July business inventory and international trade figures are updated, real GDP on the income side, the PCA forecast of real GDP and real final sales of domestic product and to domestic purchasers are all adequate for judging current economic conditions. Based on above indexes there is no sign of an economic slowdown. Fed economists, however, have recently been focusing too much on the global economic slowdown and trade tensions when determining monetary policy. Their recent intense comments about trade tensions seem to simply amplify the market volatility. Despite there being no sign of an economic slowdown, markets expect at least another rate cut by the end of this year. Prof. Lawrence Summers said, “The Fed keeps overconfidently predicting the future of an unpredictable economy.”

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