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LAST UPDATE:8/11/2018
CQM 081018 CQM 081018

Until actual income receipts (payments) from (to) ROW in 2018Q2 are updated and actual July figures for business inventories and exports and imports are used, adequate indicators to judge the current economic conditions are real final sales to domestic purchasers and PCA forecast of real GDP. Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin said this week that keeping rates low is tough to justify under current economic conditions of solid economic growth, a low unemployment rate and an inflation rate of around 2%. The Fed has not used “incoming data” for deciding monetary policy since the January FOMC meeting. Instead the Fed has used “a wide range of information” since the March FOMC meeting. Since Artificial Intelligence has been progressing remarkably in many fields, using AI to decide monetary policy is very appealing. AI may work better than forward guidance for Fed economists.

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