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LAST UPDATE:4/23/2021
CQM 20210423 CQM 20210423

Since BEA will release Advance 2021Q1GDP on April 29, this week’s CQM and PCA are the last forecasts for 2021Q1GDP. CQM forecasts economic growth rate in 2021Q1 to be 7.47% on the expenditure side and 8.42% on the income side. The average growth rate of both sides is 7.95%, which is similar to the concept of GDO introduced by BEA. The hallmark of economic growth in 2021Q1 is a significant increase in personal consumption expenditure (PCE). CQM forecasts that real PCE would have increased about 10% in 2021Q1. PCA forecasts economic growth rate to be 8.04% in 2021Q1. We conclude that economic growth will prove to have grown at an annual rate of about 8% in 2021Q1. Uncertainties about CQM/PCA forecasts depend mainly on March exports/imports and business inventories.


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