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LAST UPDATE:1/21/2022
CQM 20220121 CQM 20220121

This week’s CQM/PCA are the last forecasts for Advance 2021Q4 GDP. The forecast uncertainties lie mainly in the unpublished December economic indicators. They are construction spending, business inventories, international trade, shipments of manufactured goods and M2. In particular, December exports and imports are the key for the correct forecast because of pandemic. Since BEA releases Advance economic growth based on the expenditure side due to the incomplete data on the income side, it tends to be close to the CQM forecast of real GDP on the expenditure side. As of January 21, we conclude that economic growth will prove to have grown at an annual rate of 4% ~ 5% and inflation rate of 6% ~ 7%. We should focus on how large statistical discrepancy will be in 2021Q4, compared to -$601.2 billion in 2021Q3.


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