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We run CQM/PCA forecasts on September 8 and 13. September 8 updated only August employment). August employment increased only142K despite the market consensus of 165K and ARIMA forecast of 205K. Due to the August employment, CQM revised economic growth up a bit from 1.76% to 1.78% (9/8) on the expenditure side and from 2.12% to 2.23% (9/8) on the income side. However, PCA adjusted economic growth from 0.85% to 0.60% (9/8) in 2024Q3. While CQM forecasts about 2% economic growth for 2024Q3, PCA predicts less than 1.0% economic growth. Stock prices may increase in the second half of September. IP may have increased significantly in August.
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