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LAST UPDATE:7/19/2019
CQM 20190719 CQM 20190719

This week’s CQM/PCA are the last forecasts for the Advance 2019Q2 GDP, which will be released on July 26. CQM/PCA forecast that the range of 1.5%-2.0% will be a good guess for the Advance economic growth rate for 2019Q2. The Advance GDP tends to be close to the CQM forecast of real GDP on the expenditure side. Based on CQM/PCA forecasts of the real economy and inflation, there is no need to cut interest rates at the July 31 FOMC meeting. But, the Fed wants to make “an insurance interest rate cut” because of the downside risks to the economy from trade tensions and the slowing global economy. At a conference in Paris, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell insisted there needs to be more weight given to global dimensions when making domestic policy decisions. He should propose policy coordination among central banks instead of cutting interest rates for the U.S. alone.

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