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LAST UPDATE:6/21/2024
CQM 20240621 CQM 20240621

Real GDP on the expenditure side has been trending up since April, but its growth rate is just 0.85% in 2024Q2. Real GDP on the income side has been on a downward trend since mid-April, with growth rate standing at just 1.52%. The PCA shows that real GDP has been rising slowly since late May, but the growth rate is roughly the same as the income side of the CQM, at 1.63%. Both CQM and PCA do not show a strong economic recovery at all in 2024Q2. CQM shows a slowing down of inflation in June. Although PCA forecasts GDP price deflator higher by about 0.5% than CQM, there is no sign of accelerating inflation. Based on CQM and PCA forecasts the Fed's next move is to cut interest rates.

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