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LAST UPDATE:9/21/2019
CQM 20190920 CQM 20190920

As had been expected, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 175-200 basis points at the September 18 FOMC meeting. Three out of 10 voting members dissented. Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren preferred to keep interest rates unchanged. James Bullard preferred to lower the target range by 50 basis points for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. According to the Fed’s Dot Plot, seven out of 17 Fed members expect one more 25 basis-point cut in 2019 while the other 10 were split evenly between those who thought the new level of rates , after Wednesday’s cut, are appropriate and those who demand a rate hike of 25 basis points. Based on Dot Plot there is no consensus on monetary policy among Fed economists for even just the next three months, which will result in a loss of credibility with the markets. When trade wars are prolonged, can the Fed keep cutting interest rates to zero? This makes no sense. Look at the Japanese economy, which still has not recovered from zero interest rate policy.

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