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LAST UPDATE:11/26/2021
CQM 20211126 CQM 20211126

What was surprising for the Preliminary 2021Q3 GDP was that statistical discrepancy (SD) was calculated to be -$657.9 billion, -2.84% of GDP. Real GDI was 6.7% in 2021Q3, much higher than real GDP growth of 2.1%. As long as we focus on real GDO, economic growth did not slowdown in 2021Q3 as rapidly as than the economy on the expenditure side. Recession concerns are gone by the large negative statistical discrepancy in 2021Q3. October export of goods, as a major uncertainty of a recession, surged 10.7% on the Census basis. As a result, net exports improved significantly, contributed to a large upward revision in economic growth on the expenditure side. PCA forecast revised real GDP upward significantly last two weeks due to large increases in October retail sales, industrial production index and export of goods.

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