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LAST UPDATE:8/8/2020
CQM 20200807 CQM 20200807

This week’s CQM and PCA have begun to update actual July monthly economic indicators such as employment and short- and long-term interest rates. Payroll employment increased 1,763,000 in July, much higher than ARIMA forecast by CQM. PCE on services were revised upward significantly due to updating employment in service-producing industry. Real PCE on services were adjusted upward significantly from -3.3% to 18.7% in 2020Q3, contributing to the upward revision in economic growth on the expenditure side from 7.85% to 18.00%. July employment modified wages and salaries from 8.9% to 14.8% in 2020Q3. As a result, economic growth on the income side was adjusted from 16.77% to 19.00%. PCA revised economic growth from 0.03% to 6.25% in 2020Q3 due to July employment.

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