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LAST UPDATE:11/17/2018
CQM 111618 CQM 111618

The headline inflation rate from a year ago was revised upward to 2% in 2018Q4 and 2019Q1 mainly due to large increases in the CPI of both energy and automobiles. Are Fed economists happy because the 2% inflation target will be met in 2018Q4 and 2019Q1? The real GDP on both the expenditure and income sides has been slowing down below 2% while PCA forecasts of real GDP has been slowing down to about 2% . Real aggregated indexes also have slightly downward trends. Until actual October business inventories and exports/imports are updated, real final sales of domestic goods and to domestic purchasers are adequate indexes for judging the current economic condition. Key factors for economic growth in 2018Q4 are how quickly business inventories increase and how quickly net exports improve. The downside risk for the current economy is larger than the upside risk.

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