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LAST UPDATE:4/12/2024
CQM 20240412 CQM 20240412

The real economy in 2024Q1 is not as bad as GDP indicates. Real domestic demand is reasonably strong in 2024Q1, as real personal consumption expenditure appears to have increased at about 2%. The contribution of inventory changes to economic growth in 2024Q1 is small. The largest uncertainty in economic growth in 2024Q1 is net exports in March. In particular, March imports are key for economic growth in 2024Q1. Unless imports do not decrease substantially in March, real GDP growth will be less than 1.0%.

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