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LAST UPDATE:12/9/2018
CQM 20181207 CQM 20181207

Payrolls rose by 155,000 in November, much lower than the market consensus of 200,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% in November and the labor participation rate was also unchanged at 62.9%. The U.S. economy seems to have bottomed out mid-November. Next week’s CQM will provide important clues that prove the economy has bottomed out or not. Some Fed economists are not confident in a rate-hike at the December 18-19 FOMC meeting. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank president Robert Kaplan says, “We have the luxury of patience for the rate-hike at the December FOMC meeting.” Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank president Neel Kashkari says “We shouldn’t be offering guidance if there’s this much uncertainty about the future path of interest rates. If that guidance ends up being wrong, it hurts or undermines our credibility.” Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Raphael Bostic said “…the Fed was within ‘shouting distance’ of a rate the central bank considers to be neutral.

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