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CQM and PCA forecast negative economic growth rate for 2023Q2. The main reason for the negative economic growth is huge decline in May exported goods on Census basis: -5.5%, and large increase in imported goods: 1.8%. Real final sales and domestic final sales are forecasted to grow at annual rate of -0.65% and 1.92% respectively in 2023Q2. They increased 3.4% and 3.3% in 2023Q1. So, the pace of economic growth is expected to slow down in 2023Q2 despite strong May employment. To make matters worse, inflation has started to rise.
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