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LAST UPDATE:5/21/2022
CQM 20220520 CQM 20220520

Although April retail sales contributed to the upward revision of PCE, real PCE has still negative growth rate of -0.30% in 2022Q2. PCE is a major factor dragging economic growth in 2022Q2. After we updated S&P500 up to May 20, PCA has forecasted economic growth rate of -0.12% for 2022Q2. All three approaches of CQM forecasts of both the expenditure and income sides and PCA forecast have forecasted negative growth rate and high inflation in 2022Q2. The CQM/PCA forecasts supports Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen who acknowledged invocation of stagflation during a G-7 finance ministers meeting in Germany.

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