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LAST UPDATE:4/21/2018
CQM 042018 CQM 042018

This week’s CQM is the last forecast for the Advance 2018Q1 GDP. According to past CQM forecasts, the Advance GDP tends to be close to the CQM forecast of real GDP on the expenditure side, 2.2%, while the Final real GDP tends to be close to the average growth rate of the real GDP on both the expenditure and income side, 1.7%. PCA forecasts a bit higher growth rate for the Advance real GDP in 2018Q1, 2.6%. Although both CQM and PCA forecast a moderate economic growth rate for 2018Q1, the details of the growth are not favorable. Economic growth in 2018Q1 depends mainly on inventory changes while consumer spending will prove to have contributed less than 1.0% to the economic growth. Since disposable income increased in 2018Q1 due to the tax cut, consumer spending will increase in 2018Q2.


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